By Danjuma Amodu | February 22, 2026
Nigeria’s push to transition to a low-carbon economy requires a realistic, data-driven approach to achieve sustainable energy goals, experts have warned, as the country commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources through its Energy Transition Plan (ETP).
The ETP aims to achieve 85% electric vehicle adoption and generate 150 gigawatts of solar electricity by 2060. However, experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of these targets, citing infrastructure gaps, technological limitations, and investment challenges.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation, has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources. The country’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) aims to achieve 85% electric vehicle adoption and generate 150 gigawatts of solar electricity by 2060.
Expert Concerns
However, experts have raised concerns about the feasibility of these targets, citing infrastructure gaps, technological limitations, and investment challenges. Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), emphasised the need for a “balanced transition scenario” that allows gradual decarbonisation while leveraging Nigeria’s natural resources.
Key Findings
Given an overview of the findings, Uche Nnamani of CCCD posits that a comprehensive study on the economic, social, and environmental implications of decarbonising Nigeria’s oil and gas sector proposes increased deployment of solar mini-grids rather than large-scale utility solar projects. The study also advocates for alternative pathways for deploying savings from fuel subsidy removal, emphasising that subsidy reforms should translate into developmental investments driving green growth and economic diversification.
Notably, Nigeria’s solar energy potential is substantial, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimating that the country could generate up to 200GW of solar power. However, the country’s energy access challenges persist, with over 80 million people lacking access to electricity.
Scenarios for Energy Transition
The study proposes several scenarios for repurposing Nigeria’s fossil fuel subsidy savings and transitioning to a low-carbon economy:
Repurposing Subsidy Savings
- Green New Deal approach: 70% of subsidy savings invested in renewable energy and electrification of transportation
- Diversification Push scenario: 70% of subsidy savings allocated to economic diversification projects
- Balanced Just Transition scenario: 40% to green investments, 40% to economic diversification, and 20% for general fiscal support and social protection
Gas as a Transition Fuel
- Gas Transition Scenario: emphasises natural gas as Nigeria’s energy transition backbone
- Hybrid Transition Scenario: combines gas and renewables for universal energy access
- Renewable Transition Scenario: maximises investment in renewable energy while limiting new fossil fuel development
Conclusion
The experts agreed that evidence-based policymaking is critical to ensuring Nigeria’s green transition supports national development priorities, strengthens energy access, and positions the country for a sustainable low-carbon future.
