By Tunde Fanwo
I’ve observed over time that most of my views, outcries and opinions do get instantaneous reactions from the Federal Government. In fact, I’ve been under the delusion that someone “mighty” politically is spying on my wall, or it’s just a coincidence that has kept repeating itself.
Another clear instance was my recent outcry on the lack of internal democracy in our party, the APC. The post was made the day before yesterday, and the Party Chairman came out on national TV to reassure people that there can only be a consensus candidate if all interested aspirants agree. It might just be a way of dousing tension, but at least a serious aspirant could hold on to that as evidence when fighting for any injustice as regards selection or election in the court of law.
Back to the actual topic: “2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION”. I want most of you to pin this post on your wall. If you can, print it. It’s definitely an unpopular prediction that only very few will remember they heard from me first when it becomes a reality.
One undeniable fact about democracy is that we can’t do outrightly without “godfatherism”. What it detests as a system of leadership recruitment is outright imposition of unpopular candidates. But the fact remains, majority of the godfathers will have their way or still sway the political reasoning of their followers, but every political action comes with its reactions.
Before you can digest this post properly, you need to go blind on your perception of me politically and also allow your centre of logic to be open enough to accommodate even what you don’t like to hear. With an ADC which comprises major actors like Peter Obi, Atiku, Kwankwaso, Amaechi and others, it’s easy to predict where the pendulum is most likely to swing.
The odds of Atiku and Peter Obi clinching the ticket is on a ratio of 85% combined, leaving the 15% probability (the assumption is not based on any empirical data, please, but on previous outcomes of contests in the past by the actors and the current sentiment on their popularity nationwide) to the likes of Kwankwaso, Amaechi and co.
The prediction will be made from these two angles: A southerner’s ticket and the power-sharing equation.
A Southerner’s Ticket
With the unwritten agreement of the power-sharing formula that has been a major factor of who takes power or not, we know that the incumbent is a Southerner and his constitutional right is to go for another term since the constitution allows for two terms of office for an individual. It could have been a different story if Obasanjo had succeeded in bribing his way through for a three-term constitutional provision.
If the ticket is given to a Southerner, which is most likely going to be Peter Obi and probably miraculously given to Amaechi, it means the South will have an opportunity to extend their power grip, since a new president is most likely going to take a shot at it twice. This will not go well with the major political actors in the North, most of whom age is no longer on their side. Atiku will temporarily resign back to Dubai and leave the game for the Northern Governors to dictate to the majority of the undecided northerners. You might find it hard to swallow, but an average Hausa/Fulani voter will not be comfortable with a Peter Obi ticket even if there is Kwankwaso on it. In fact, with Kwankwaso as vice president to Peter Obi, he would lose Kano. Forget about the crowd that welcomed him in Kano when he visited; their hope is that their Political General will clinch the ticket and not serve as Vice. This is not about preaching hatred, it’s about saying it as it is. The relationship of the Eastern South and the North has never been rosy since after the Nzeogwu Coup.
The Power-Sharing Equation
We are all aware that we have a bi-power bloc. Our power-sharing formula was naturally divided into two blocs: The North and The South. The best time for an Obi to have clinched the Presidential seat was in 2023. Apart from the religion and tribal sentiment that helped Atiku (same applicable to others, though), an average electorate was aware that it was the turn of the South. Their votes were divided between the Tinubu of the APC and The Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Atiku rode on his years of being a strong political force in the North after Buhari, as well as the tribal sentiment of being a northerner.
The game this time around will have a new twist. There is little likelihood that Peter Obi will be picked. That will sway the political sentiment to Tinubu’s side in the South, since it’s only Peter Obi that could reasonably divide the Southern votes with him. If we have an Atiku as the main opposition candidate, it will give the opposition a better edge in the North. The vote might be surplus, but will other Northern power brokers be willing to accept an Atiku for 8 years instead of trading him off for Tinubu to complete his 8 years and leave the stage for a Northern-laced Presidential contest?
I’m sure you’re wondering why I’m mostly silent on Kwankwaso. The fact is, the Kwankwasiyya movement only covers Kano, and with the likes of the two former Governors and the incumbent, along with Rt. Hon. Abdulmumin Jubrin, pitching tent with APC, he may be demystified in 2027. If he still wins Kano, I shall go on a political pilgrimage to see him if I’m opportuned. đŸ˜„
An Atiku or Peter Obi and Kwankwaso will not get the required spread no matter how they tried. That’s why I find it difficult to understand why the Presidency seems to be too interested in what happens in the opposition or trying so hard to strangulate them as alleged.
In summary, Tinubu will WIN based on the following:
South/North power-sharing formula
_A single-term card will be accepted by any Northern candidate who lost out in the primary than conceding power to a Northerner, which will reduce their chances of ever getting elected
_Inability to quench the power greed and form an alliance beyond just grabbing power
You might not like this prediction or you might think I’m making this up because I’m an APC person, but I do wish you print this out and place it on your wall as a reminder when it does happen.
Note: It doesn’t mean APC will outlive Tinubu’s government. He will do his second term and his exit from the Presidency will break the Party, giving birth to new alliances and political rebirth.
©® Fanwo (Afrika), an APC member writes from Lokoja. He writes on politics, governance and tr
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