Nigeria’s oil earnings have recorded an estimated windfall of about N5.13 trillion in two months, as crude prices surged following tensions linked to the United States–Iran crisis, pushing revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget assumptions.
The war started on February 28 when oil prices were below $70 a barrel. Prices have since climbed, selling for above $120 at some point. As of Friday, Brent traded at $110 per barrel, while Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude, traded at $134 as of Thursday.
The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar. Based on this, expected daily oil revenue stands at $116.73 million, or about N163.42 billion, which serves as the baseline for measuring gains or shortfalls.
Findings show that actual earnings in March and April exceeded this benchmark, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices amid the Middle East crisis.
In March, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed average production at 1.55 million barrels per day. The average crude price stood at $95.03 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, with the exchange rate averaging N1,370 to the dollar. This puts daily revenue at approximately $147.30 million, or about N201.80 billion.
Compared with the budget benchmark of N163.42 billion per day, that is a positive variance of N38.38 billion daily. Over the 31 days in March, the windfall amounts to an estimated N1.19 trillion.
Despite the rise in government earnings, the domestic economy remains under pressure, especially from fuel costs and general living expenses. Analysts note that higher global oil prices often push up local fuel prices in a deregulated market where domestic pricing tracks international benchmarks.
This has fueled higher transportation costs, food prices, and overall inflation, adding strain on households and businesses.
The situation underscores a recurring paradox in Nigeria’s economy: gains from oil exports do not always bring immediate relief to citizens facing economic hardship.
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Source: Punch Newspaper, curated by NewsWorth Media with different featured photo
